Swedish Krona Tipped to Carry Winning Ways into Early 2026
- Written by: Sam Coventry
CIBC says the Swedish krona is likely to remain well supported into early 2026, building on its status as the strongest-performing G10 currency of 2025.
The bank said recent pullbacks in Sweden's services and composite PMI readings do not undermine the broader outlook, noting that "forward looking domestic sentiment remains elevated, certainly when compared with the eurozone".
CIBC acknowledged that services sector sentiment slipped below its three-month moving average for the first time since August, but said manufacturing confidence "ticked higher for the first time in three months in December".
Above: SEK outperforms allcomers when screened over a one-year horizon.
Analysts say the potential boost from increased defence spending could also provide additional support to the regional economy.
On inflation, CIBC said it expects "a modest bounce in core, ex-energy CPI" in the upcoming data, reinforcing its view of prolonged policy stability from the Riksbank.
It added that the "lagged impact of policy easing" should continue to underpin the krona, given the central bank’s history of acting early and decisively.
"After proving the 2025 outperformer absent an unexpectedly soft CPI print, encouraging some discussion of still easier policy, (not our central case scenario) we would expect the SEK to remain well supported in H1," says CIBC.
The bank said it remains biased toward further gains, targeting EUR/SEK at "the 2025 low at 10.6652 in upcoming sessions".