Euro Rates Today: Forecasts Warn EUR Downtrend Likely to Continue, EUR/GBP Under Pressure, EUR/USD in Monday Recovery

By Gary Howes

euro exchange rate forecasts today

Euro exchange rates (EUR) are enjoying a little relief today but the EUR is still within touching distance of a multi-month low against the US Dollar and a two-week low against the Pound. Forecasters are pricing in sustained weakness.

The single currency was little moved following the release of data out of Germany which showed that producer price inflation in the Eurozone’s largest economy declined more than forecast on a yearly basis. As our latest euro exchange rate forecast coverage mentions, the outlook for 2014 does not bode well for those hoping for higher EUR rates.

Euro exchange rates today

  • The euro dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) is seeing some relief coming in 0.1 pct higher at 1.3619.
  • The euro Aus dollar rate (EUR/AUD) is 1.6 pct higher is 1.5503.
  • The euro NZ dollar exchange rate (EUR/NZD) is 0.43 pct up at 1.6396.

Note: Our EUR quotes are taken from the wholesale spot markets. Your bank will charge a spread at their discretion when passing on a retail rate. However, an independent FX provider is so well placed on the market that they are able to deliver you up to 5% more currency. Please learn more here.

Euro exchange rate action over the past 24 hours

The market has begun to favour the dollar over the euro once more as Asian buyers of the euro to take a back seat. With levels back below 1.36, a light US calendar could help the euro recover some ground this week.

"The single currency is a little firmer this morning, however we doubt this will be sustained during today’s session. We expect some range-bound levels today," says Sasha Nugent at Caxton FX.

Forecasts for key euro rates today

"From the Eurozone, focus will be on the survey data with German ZEW and ‘flash’ PMIs for January released this week. Little change is expected from last month in the sentiment indicators; however any surprises will likely set the tone for EUR/USD which has been under some pressure over the past week. On a break below the 1.3500 level in EUR/USD, there is little in the way of support ahead of retracement level support at 1.3437," Lloyds Bank Research say in a morning exchange rate forecast note.

"Mixed US economic data did manage to drag EUR/USD below 1.36 and more range trading is likely to prevail today between 1.35 and 1.3570 given the very light daily calendar and the US holiday," say UniCredit Bank.

"EUR/USD started the week weaker. The pair retreated to 1.3508 on stronger bearish momentum. As the sentiment turns mild, stops are building sub-1.3500. Option bets are skewed on the downside for the week ahead. We remains sellers on rallies," says a morning currency note from Swissquote Bank.

"Further selling extended this morning to test support at 1.3524, a close below which would be negative, triggering a deeper sell-off to 1.3296.
Resistance is at 1.3699," says Gareth Berry at UBS.  

ICN Financial say they see further EUR downside in the outlook:

"The drop last Friday broke the bullish key support level of the ascending channel reversing trading below 1.3665 levels to negative and might extend the downside move this week.

"Of note, stabilising below 1.3520 is required to confirm bearishness and limit any bullish correction. Linear Regression Indicators and MACD are negative. But momentum indicators require stability below 1.3595 so the pair won’t respond to the oversold signals showing on Stochastic.

"Based on the above, sell the pair below 1.3560 targeting 1.3470, 1.3365 then 1.3295 and stop-loss above 1.3665

"If the stop-loss was triggered, buy the pair above 1.3665 targeting 1.3715, 1.3770 then 1.3830 and stop-loss below 1.3590."

Looking at the euro pound exchange rate (EUR/GBP): "Friday’s sharp sell-off reinforces the broader bearish trend. Support lies at 0.8231, a break below which would expose the critical 0.8160. Resistance is at 0.8291 ahead of 0.8349." - Gareth Berry at UBS.

"The pair resumed negative trading last Friday and approaching the Falling Wedge support at 0.8220, where we expect an upside rebound from that level targeting the Wedge resistance at 0.8380. Stochastic and MA 50 & 100 explain the current downside move and the pair requires stability above 0.8220 to support positivity in the coming days, where the upside move remains favored with targets extending toward 0.8570 after the breach of 0.8380," says the euro pound forecast from ICN Financial.

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