Exchange Rate Outlook Today: Pound Sterling, Euro, US Dollar and Japanese Yen

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This forecast note is courtesy of OCBC Bank.

Pound dollar exchange rate outlook

Despite cautionary comments from the BOE’s Weale on the labor market, the GBP-USD stayed supported within a familiar range in the wake of supportive house price data on Thursday. Meanwhile, stark EUR under performance saw the EUR-GBP plunging to sub-0.8480 levels.

Pending further cues from the dollar and the EUR, expect the GBP-USD to continue to mull the 1.6000 support and we would prefer to fade any rallies
towards 1.6050 while any failure at 1.6000 may pave the way to 1.5950.

Euro dollar exchange rate forecast

The EUR-USD may remain top heavy in the near term if market speculation towards a dovish ECB next week continues to mount. In this environment, our preference would be for a sell-rally posture with risks skewed towards 1.3500 and then the 55-day MA (1.3477).

Australian dollar vs US dollar exchange rate outlook

Early this morning, the AiG manufacturing index improved to 53.2 in Oct 13 from 51.7 the previous month and the pair may get a further layer of support from the better than expected China manufacturing PMI.

We however would refrain from chasing the pair higher at this juncture and any failure to re-take 0.9500 continues to risk a relapse back towards 0.9400/20.

Dollar yen forecast

Expect the pair to remain resistant to downside dips in the near term while on the topside, a breach above the 55-day MA (98.38) may invite a test towards 98.70 in short order. Initial support meanwhile is seen towards 98.00