Exchange Rate Forecasts Today: Pound Sterling, Euro, US Dollar, Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen
The currency markets are witnessing some big moves with pound sterling coming under some significant pressure:
GBP/USD is 0.3 pct lower at 1.6098.
EUR/USD is 0.24 pct higher at 1.3553.
USD/JPY is 1.37 pct higher at 0.9927.
USD/CHF is 0.13 pct lower at 0.9107.
[Keep in Mind: The above quotes are taken from the wholesale markets, your bank will subtract their own spread when passing on a retail rate. However, an independent FX provider will guarantee to undercut your bank's offer, thus delivering more currency. Please learn more here.]
The following exchange rate forecasts come courtesy of Peter Rosenstreich at Swissquote Research:
Euro dollar exchange rate forecast
The Fed did not disappoint providing fireworks across the FX space. USD was the broad loser as the FOMC shifted to the extreme dovish side of expectations. Lucky for us we were USD bearish on most currencies covered.
EURUSD sky rocked to 1.3546 easily taking out our 1.3455 target. We could see a minor correction on profit taking and overbought conditions but even with a mild pullback the charts are solidly bullish. With MACD firmly over the zero-line, trend and momentum indicators bullish and uptrend stable, our focus is on 1.3610.
The first region of supply is located at a distant 1.3455 (14th Feb high), then 1.3520 (13th Feb pivot high).
The next support can be found at 1.3320 (17th Sept low), 1.3106 (6th Sept low), 1.2995 (10th July reaction high), 1.2963 (11th July low), 1.2877 (Fibonacci 50% retracement on Jul 12’ – Feb 13’ rally), then 1.2820 (20th May low).
Pound dollar exchange rate forecast
GBPUSD extended rally made short work of supply on its way to 1.6164 (taking out our 1.600 target and above bullish channel). With GBPUSD comfortably in a expanded uptrend channel , thin supply zones above and momentum indicators in bullish territory.
We would buy on dips with our next target 1.6343. Watch for next resistance to come into play at 1.6179 (11th Jan high), 1.6343 (2013 high). The support levels from here are 1.6007 (resistance turned support), 1.5600 (resistance turned support), 1.5759 (17th June high), 1.5496 (200 dma), then 1.5320 (65 dma).
US Dollar to Japanese Yen forecast
USD/JPY aggressively sold off to 97.78 smack in the middle of daily cloud cover on the Fed news, before picking up a strong bid and regains most of USDJPY lost ground. Despite the selling pressure and bearish Stochastic we remain bullish. In the midterm we are still targeting 101.48 (but 100.68 would be our first target).
The first resistance region is located at 100.68 (11th Sept high), 101.50 / 68 (8th July high & Fibo lvl), 102.53 (29th May high), 103.55 (16th Sep 08 & 30th Sep 08 low), then 105.00 (psychological resistance).
On the downside, supports are located at 97.90 (daily cloud cover), 96.80 (sideways range top), 95.83 (6th June low), 93.57 (Fibonacci 61.8% on Sept 12’ – May 13’ rally), 92.56 (2th Mar low & Fibo 38.2% retracement), 90.93 (25th Feb low).
US Dollar Swiss Franc exchange rate forecast
USD/JPY sharp sell-off made short work on demand regions (violating key support at 0.9128) on its way to 0.9138. Currently the bears are in full control and with the break of 0.9128 will trigger an extension of weakness. We are focused on 0.9023.
The first levels of support remains at then 0.9023 (31st Jan pivot low), 0.9000 (psychological support).
The next levels of resistance are located at 0.9450 (target), 0.9481 (range top), 0.9568 (fibo 61.8% on May-June drop), 0.9598 (11th July high), 0.9626 (31st May low & 3rd June low) then 0.9672 (fibo76.4% level on May – June drop).