British Pound Sterling Live: GBP Predicted to Advance vs Vulnerable US Dollar, UK Claimant Count Forecasted Sharply Lower
The British Pound Sterling (Currency:GBP) is firm on Monday as investors continue to price in an improving UK economy. Ahead this week we have all-important employment data which will form the domestic data highlight. Meanwhile, technical forecasts suggest the GBP is likely to retain the initiative against the USD, but we note a continued rebound in AUD, NZD and other commodity and emerging market currencies could extend further.
Latest Rates - As of Most Recent Post
- The Pound to Euro exchange rate is 0.22 pct higher on a daily basis at 1.1888.
- The Pound to US Dollar exchange rate is 0.32 pct higher at 1.5685.
- The Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate is 0.13 pct higher at 1.7144.
- The Pound to New Zealand Dollar exchange rate is 0.24 pct higher at 1.9719.
- The Pound to South African Rand rate is 0.33 pct higher at 15.7344.
Please Note: These are wholesale quotes; your bank will levy a discretionary spread when passing their retail rate. However, an independent FX provider will guarantee to undercut your bank's offer, thus delivering you more currency. Please learn more here, or use our custom wholesale vs retail currency converter.
14:38: GBP bulls will target the 1.5700
Matt Weller gives his views on near-term prospects for GBP vs the USD:
"The GBP/USD has also rallied to start this week’s trade, but is showing substantial relative strength compared to its European rival.
"The pair has now broken to a new multi-week high in the upper-1.5600s and based on the recent 4hr Bullish Marubozu Candle, rates may have further to run in today’s North American trade. To the topside, bulls will target the 1.5700 round handle, followed by the multi-month highs at 1.5715 next."
14:22: Focus turns to Bank of England officials, GBP could test 1.58
"GBP is up 0.3% even as the focus is on the Sunday Times article with the BoE’s Fisher entitled: ‘read our lips:
there are no plans to raise rates’. The highlight this week will be September 12th when Governor Carney appears before the Treasury Select Committee.
"GBPUSD short‐term technicals are mixed as spot rallies towards the August high of 1.5718, a break above would open up a test to the June high of 1.5752 followed by 1.5800."
14:03: Rallies in EUR/GBP to fade
Stephen Gallo gives his take on the Euro and the potential for any rallies to fade:
"Leading into further US data later this week, we suspect that there will be room to fade rallies in the EUR against something – maybe one currency or maybe a host of currencies at once. Along these lines, we think there is money in EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD and EUR/CAD.
"Additionally, rallies in EUR/GBP should be capped below 0.84500 in the run-up to UK labour market data on Wednesday. The EUR should therefore remain a “sell on rallies” with the pair below the aforementioned level.
12:30: CBI calls for 'relentless' focus on infrastructure
Chancellor George Osborne has been blowing his trumpet over the UK's return to growth today.
John Cridland, CBI Director-General, responds:
“The economy is gathering some momentum and with business confidence on the up, supported by greater interest rate certainty, we expect growth to continue into next year.
“But to deliver a sustainable recovery we need stronger levels of business investment and trade to rebalance the economy, so we must get behind smaller firms who are ambitious to export.
“We have always said that deficit reduction should be at the top of the Government’s ‘to-do list’, but it must be coupled with an unrelenting focus on growth-boosting measures like infrastructure projects.”
09:02:UBS bearish on EUR/GBP
Analyst Gareth Berry at UBS is bearish on the Euro:
"Having tested the strong support at 0.8397, the immediate risk appears for a short-term recovery to unwind the sharp sell-off. Resistance is at 0.8492. Support is at 0.8285."
08:31: British Pound to take advantage of vulnerable US Dollar
Emmanuel Ng at OCBC Bank says the British Pound is likely to advance further against a vulnerable US Dollar. Ng says:
"The GBP-USD may attempt to ride the vulnerable dollar higher in the near term with the pair still hovering above the 1.5600 floor.
"On the CFTC front, net speculative GBP shorts increased in the latest week but note that this data pre-dated the BOE and the US labor market numbers last week, and a near term test towards the 1.5700 handle cannot be discounted. Meanwhile, sub-1.5600, the 200-day MA (1.5494) may be expected to provide a good floor on dips."
08:27: Can this week's data further boost British Sterling?
The Pound Sterling continues to benefit from market expectations that the Bank of England will increase rates sooner than they are suggesting.
Will this week's data fuel these expectations further?
Lloyds Bank Research says:
"Domestically higher medium-term rates have been accompanied by a shorting in the expected time until policy tightening.
"This is despite the Bank of England’s forward guidance, committing not to tighten policy before the unemployment rate drops below 7%.
"This largely reflects signs of a more robust recovery suggesting this could happen more quickly than the BoE projects. This weeks releases are likely to add to this sentiment.
"Claimant count unemployment on Wednesday looks likely to fall sharply again in August and we forecast the ILO unemployment rate slipping to 7.7%. Less high profile, the RICS housing survey and official construction output look likely to point to further housing market revival -also bolstering tightening expectations."