Pound euro exchange rate: Today's data just won't allow GBP/EUR to take a crack at 1.19

The GBP continues to hover around inter-month highs against the Euro; there just wasn't enough good news in today's raft of data points to allow an attempt at 1.19.

pound euro exchange rate
It appears that the strong run in UK data has finally hit a bump. After a week of consensus-beating PMI data today's data points have presented sterling with a chance to take a breather against the shared currency:

  • The Pound to Euro exchange rate is 0.04 pct in the red at 1.1878.
  • The Euro to Pound exchange rate is thus trading at 0.8419

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The British Pound has drifted lower following on from today's major data releases:

The UK Consumer Inflation Expectations for the next 12 months rose 3.2%, down from the 3.6% recorded previously, the Bank of England indicated in its quarterly report released on Friday.

Total Trade Balance (Jul): £-3.085B, worse than £-1.700B expected.

Goods Trade Balance (Jul): Came in at -9.853B, worse than a forecast for £-8.150B.

Trade Balance; non-EU (Jul): £-4.528B vs £-2.950B expected.

Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Jul): Beat expectations by coming in at -0.7%, better than expected -0.8%

Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jul): Actual at 0.2%, expected at 0.3%

Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul): Came in at -1.6%, better than consensus at -1.7%.

Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul): Came in unchanged, worse than expectations for growth at 0.1 pct.  

"The current rate is at 1.1882 and although sterling has made a run for it, the euro may be able to do enough to keep the pound at bay. Therefore we predict levels will remain around 1.18 attempting to reach 1.19," says Sasha Nugent at Caxton FX.

Euro: Shared currency struggles in the wake of ECB rate meeting

The Euro has been unable to capitalise on some softer data out of the UK; indeed one would have expected profit-taking on sterling at this stage.

It appears that investors are hesitant to back the Euro following on from yesterday's ECB rate meeting.

Jeremy Cook at WorldFirst says:

"Draghi’s job of convincing the markets that rates would stay lower for longer in the Eurozone was a lot easier. Despite the recent good news we have seen in the Eurozone, the recovery can most definitely only be described as nascent.

"Peripheral markets could do with the boost that another 25bps rate cut may provide. Unfortunately, although a rate cut was discussed, no change was made to the Bank’s base rate. To emphasise the rocky path left for the Eurozone, while 2013 GDP was revised higher to -0.4% from -0.6%, 2014’s was revised lower (1.0% from 1.1%).

"Euro moved lower as soon as Draghi started speaking and fell to a four month low versus sterling in the afternoon session."

Expect currency market volatility to pick up in coming sessions; we have some Industrial Production data out of Germany at the top of the hour.

At lunchtime we get the release of the all-important US Non-Farm Payroll data.

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