British Pound Sterling Live: GBP Faces Barrage of Data @ 09:30, £'s Share of International Foreign Exchange Markets Falls

The British Pound Sterling (Currency:GBP) has a busy day ahead with trade and industrial production data due in the morning session. We also consider the British Pound's share of global forex markets and digest the latest currency forecasts.

Highlights:

@09:30: Sterling slips on poor trade and production data
@11:15: US data disapointment will fuel further GBP/USD gains
@13:26: GBP/USD rallies as US Non-Farm data underwhelms
@15:16: NIESR reports 0.7% economic growth for UK in three months to August

Latest Pound Sterling Exchange Rates - As of Most Recent Post

• The Pound to Euro exchange rate is 0.08 pct higher on a daily basis at 1.1895.
• The Pound to US Dollar exchange rate is 0.36 pct higher at 1.5642.
• The Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate is 0.68 pct lower at 1.6979.
• The Pound to New Zealand Dollar exchange rate is 1.16 pct lower at 1.9544.
• The Pound to South African Rand rate is 0.9 pct lower at 15.8442.

Please Note: These are wholesale quotes; your bank will levy a discretionary spread when passing their retail rate. However, an independent FX provider will guarantee to undercut your bank's offer, thus delivering you more currency. Please learn more here, or use our custom wholesale vs retail currency converter.

15:16: UK economy grew 0.7 pct in three months to August

Further confirmation of economic growth.

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research's (NIESR) estimate of growth over the last 3 months up to the report was +0.9% in August, up from the previous +0.7%.

13:26: British Pound rallies against the US Dollar in the wake of US NFP Data

US Non-Farm Paroll data has not been kind to the US Dollar.
US August NFP change is +169K on the headline vs. cons +180K.

But, US unemployment rate falls to 7.3% versus 7.4% expected for August, revisions to payrolls number of jobs created fall 74k in 2 months.

It is this revision that has seen markets call the September Fed taper into question.

Markets, gold have rallied.

12:53: A warning on potential dollar strength

Bilal Hafeez at Deutsche Bank says the US Dollar is at a crtitical juncture:

"We are now entering a critical phase for the dollar with 2 year and 5 year rate differentials now in favor of the USD. Crucially, real yields continue to be dollar positive, which combined with higher US growth relative to the Eurozone has historically been associated with dollar uptrends."

"NZD and CHF are most overvalued. For them to reach a 25% overshoot, they would need to reach 0.50 and 1.41, respectively. The numbers look aggressive, but if our thesis of a multi-year dollar uptrend is correct, then those levels will eventually be reached."

12:25: US employment data and NIESR GDP estimate ahead

This afternoon promises to be a busy one for the British Pound.

At 13:30 we have the US Non-Farm Payroll data release. What will this mean for the GBP/USD? We explore the possibilities here.

Then at 15:00 we get the 3 month GDP Estimate released by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

11:37: More on the $5.3 TRILLION a day forex market

Just where does the British Pound Sterling stand in the global foreign exchange market? Find out here.

11:15: Disapointing US Non-Farm Payroll Data to Fire-Up the GBP/USD Bulls

The next big data point comes at 13:30, Ipek Ozkardeskaya at Swissquote says the Sterling bulls remain in charge ahead of the event:

"GBPUSD surged to 1.5667; the short sterling futures fell, while 10-year Gilt yields hit two-year highs. The markets keep trading on what they believe, regardless of Carney’s forward guidance on low interest rates.

"Interestingly however, the Cable reacted to Mr. Draghi’s press conference. GBPUSD wrote-off post-MPC gains, yet the bullish momentum strengthened. For a close above 1.5717, the MACD 12, 26 day indicator will step in the green zone, so eyes are set on the afternoon’s US nonfarm payrolls data. Any disappointment should reinforce GBP-bulls."

09:41: Sterling slips slightly after morning's data

The British Pound has drifted lower following on from today's major data releases:

The UK Consumer Inflation Expectations for the next 12 months rose 3.2%, down from the 3.6% recorded previously, the Bank of England indicated in its quarterly report released on Friday.

Total Trade Balance (Jul): £-3.085B, worse than £-1.700B expected.

Goods Trade Balance (Jul): Came in at -9.853B, worse than a forecast for £-8.150B.

Trade Balance; non-EU (Jul): £-4.528B vs £-2.950B expected.

Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Jul): Beat expectations by coming in at -0.7%, better than expected -0.8%

Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jul): Actual at 0.2%, expected at 0.3%

Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul): Came in at -1.6%, better than consensus at -1.7%.

Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul): Came in unchanged, worse than expectations for growth at 0.1 pct. 

08:40: Halifax also release housing market stats (but they are below expectations)

A bit of disappointment from the Halifax overnight.

Month on Month house price figures released for the month of August came in at +0.4 pct, lower than expectations for a reading of +0.7 pct.

Halifax House Prices (3m/YoY) (Aug) came in at +5.4 pct, lower than expectations for +5.6 pct.

08:18: Housing market welcomes first time buyers, but growth likely to slow

LSL Property Services today report that the number of first-time buyers rose 45 pct year-on-year in July.

Falling mortgage rates - thanks in part to the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) - helped 26,100 first-timers into the property markets.

However, LSL warn that rocketing house prices could slow the growth in first-time buyers.

08:15: Pound Sterling's market share of global forex market falls

Pound Sterling Share of Global Markets Slides but London Cements Number 1. Spot as World's Leading Trading Centre

The British Pound Sterling's share of the world's foreign exchange markets has fallen from 12.9 pct in 2010 to  11.8 in 2013 reports the Bank for International Settlements.

Check back in mid morning for a full report.

08:12: The agenda for Sterling exchange rates today

The British Pound Sterling (Currency:GBP)  faces its first big test of the day at 09:30 when Consumer Inflation Expectations are released by the Bank of England.

Also at 09:30 we received the monthly UK trade statistics and industrial production stats, here is what to look out for:

Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul): Expected at +0.1 pct.
Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul): Expected at -1.7%.
Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jul): Expected at +0.3%.
Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Jul): Expected at -0.8%.
Total Trade Balance (Jul): Expected at £-1.700B.
Goods Trade Balance (Jul): Expected at £-8.150B.
Trade Balance; non-EU (Jul): Expected at £-2.950B.