EUR in the red on GDP numbers, but outlook for the Euro remains positive thanks to momentum
The Euro (Currency:EUR) is under pressure on Wednesday morning:
- The Euro Dollar exchange rate is 0.13 pct lower than seen at last night's close; EUR/USD is at 1.3246.
- The Euro Pound exchange rate is 0.23 pct lower at 0.8565.
- The Euro Australian dollar exchange rate is 0.06 pct higher at 1.4564.
NB: The above quotes are from the wholesale inter-bank markets. When passing on retail rates your bank will affix their own discretionary spread which is effectively the cost of your FX transaction. However, an independent FX provider will guarantee to undercut your bank's offer, thereby delivering more currency. Please learn more here.
Eurozone GDP data driving currency market sentiment
The big news concerning the shared currency at the present time is that surrounding the latest growth figures out of the Eurozone.
The Euro was actually bid higher in early morning trade thanks to the GDP numbers coming out of France and Germany, however markets have turned a little more sour since then.
It would seem the performance of the Eurozone periphery is dragging.
Ishaq Siddiqi at ETX Capital says:
"The pace of contraction eases in the periphery, but it must be noted that growth in these nations is held back by deep austerity and structural reforms currently implemented in economies. That said, the recession for the EMU is over, at least for now.
"Euro zone GDP is likely to teeter around meagre growth and mild contraction over the next 3 years at least with stronger growth on board thereafter and a sustainable uptick after 5 years. Of course, the risk of falling back into a recession remains high as there is potential of nations to fall behind budget targets and political instability risk also threatens to send the region back into contraction territory.
"Encouraging news, as the worse of the economic crisis in the area is over, certainly for core nations. That being said, don’t get too excited just yet – it will take the periphery 5 years or so before it finds a sustainable path to growth."
Outlook still favours the Euro however
Despite today's shift down in the euro exchange rates we do note that the shared currency continues to enjoy the benefits of recent positive momentum.
Commenting on the outlook for the Euro is Luc Luyet at MIG Bank who says:
"EUR/USD is still favoured to return to the 1.3400 region. Upside momentum has been weakened by the fall under 1.3266 (07/08/2013 intraday low) yesterday. However, we still await a push under 1.3190 (02/08/2013 low) before abandoning the possibility of a return to the 1.3400 region.
"If a retest, or break over, 1.3417 can be achieved, the region between this key high and the annual high is expected to see a fair degree of resistance and is likely to offer a reasonable short entry opportunity."
Craig Erlam at Alpari UK agrees that a resumption of gains in the Euro Dollar exchange rate is possible:
"A retracement was probably inevitable. I only expect the pull back to be temporary though, with 1.32 being the next target to the downside. A break of this level should then open up a move towards 1.30, with support coming around 1.3180, 1.3150 and 1.3065.
"The pair has already found resistance around 1.3275, but could push a little higher before continuing its push lower, with the 50 fib level being the obvious target, around 1.3317, especially given that it was a previous level of resistance."
Ahead today we have some inflation data due out of the United States, but this remains of secondary importance.
Expect technical considerations to determine trading for the remainder of the da