Why, when and to where to next for the AUD and NZD?
Richard Driver at CaxtonFX says investors are fleeing the AUD as RBA Governor Stevens gives clear indication of rate cut:
"Australian building approvals data was the worst in eight months but it was comments from the top man at the Reserve bank of Australia that gave the AUD such a knock last night.
"Glenn Stevens stressed that there is still scope to cut interest rates further in light of weak inflation data.
He even stated that it would be no surprise if the AUD falls further. GBP/AUD has hit fresh highs above 1.69 and a look at 1.70 shouldn’t be too far away now." (Would you buy GBP/AUD? Copy the trades of the most successful FX traders on the world's largest FX network. Find out more here).
A MoneyCorp spokesman tells us:
"Yesterday the New Zealand prime minister had described the Kiwi dollar as "still overvalued", sending his own currency lower, but the Aussie is winning this latest race to the bottom.
"It is down by two and a half cents on the day, a fall of -1.5% that is double the size of the Kiwi's drop. Technically, the tactics of the antipodean authorities are spot-on.
"They are taking advantage of the downward pressure on the Aussie and the Kiwi to depress them further. It is always more effective to give a currency a shove in its current direction than it is to stand in its way and chuck money at it.
Boris Schlossberg at BK Asset Management says:
"The net result of Dr. Steven's remarks was the equivalent of kicking the Aussie when it was down, as the pair absorbed all of the dovish news by falling through the 9100 figure before finally stabilizing at 9050. The shorts will no doubt continue to press their case as they gun for the key 9000 barrier, but if the RBA does not cut rates next week, the unit could see a sharp rebound on surprise short covering.
Shaun Osborne at TD Securities:
"Softer oil and metals prices especially suggest some further headwinds for the commodity currencies broadly but the RBNZ’s recently-introduced tightening bias suggests the Kiwi should outperform. We are long-term AUD/CAD technical bears and look for this cross to continue its recent decline towards 0.91."