US Federal Reserve

U.S. Dollar exchange rates were lower with modest losses in many cases by the mid-week milestone after Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell's appearance at the Economic Club of Washington prompted a wave of what might have been profit-taking on speculative trading positions. 

Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated the Federal Reserve (Fed) is near a "sufficiently restrictive" level of interest rates and that it's cycle of increases may soon be over but this suggestion came with numerous caveats, details of which can be found in the below transcript of Wednesday’s press conference. 

The Dollar fell sharply against the Pound, Euro and other major currencies after the Chair of the Federal Reserve said the U.S. economy would not require significantly more rate hikes to bring inflation lower.

New and innovative research from Goldman Sachs provides a more timely measure of layoffs in the U.S. job market and suggests Federal Reserve (Fed) officials  are right to be dismissing recently-downbeat economic data while warning of their intention to stay a hawkish interest rate course. 

A look at who the important voices on the Federal Reserve's FOMC will be in 2023.

The Dollar strengthened after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 50 basis points and lifted its projections of where it expects interest rates to settle at the end of the hiking cycle in 2023.

The Fed will fail to bring core inflation below 3.0% in the current cycle shows new research, paving the way for a successive cycle of rate hikes.

Pandemic period gains for stock markets and the resulting windfalls for investors have been cited by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell for a sharp increase in retirements that is lifting pay growth for workers but also contributing to inflation and helping to drive interest rates higher. 

Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers were far from uninanimous in their views on how much further interest rates may need to rise in November and recent data has done little to suggest that would have changed since this month's meeting, though analysts at ING say it's too early to count the U.S. Dollar out.

The Euro to Dollar rate has reversed much of its October recovery in recent trade with the help of a Federal Reserve (Fed) that has quashed market speculation about a dovish pivot or softening of the U.S. interest rate stance and left the outlook for the single currency hanging in the balance. 

The Dollar strengthened in the hours following another large U.S. interest rate hike and a clear message from Chair Jerome Powell that further hikes were necessary to bring inflation lower.

Advice that the Fed should consider ending its rate hiking cycle "is badly misguided" says Larry Summers.

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate remained buoyant near the week's highs after the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred measure of inflation underwhelmed expectations and did nothing to persuade the market into bidding afresh for the greenback ahead of next Wednesday's interest rate decision. 

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate surged into the London close on Friday amid a spectacular rally from the Japanese Yen that appeared to drive a market-wide slump in Dollar exchange rates and was followed by reports of direct intervention from the government in Tokyo and Bank of Japan (BoJ).

The Euro did better than many others even as it fell to an October low against the Dollar after official data showed U.S. inflation accelerating further in September, inciting a sharp rally in government bond yields and bringing Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate policy back into focus for the market. 

The Federal Reserve (Fed) has an expanded array of tools with which it could fix fractures in the financial system should its interest rate policy lead things to break and the mere existence of some of those tools has likely already acted as a stabilising force, according to Governor Christopher Waller. 

The Pound to Dollar rate climbed back above 1.14 to extend a six-day recovery as U.S. exchange rates eased across the board following the release of data suggesting the number of U.S. job vacancies fell sharply in August. 

U.S. interest rates were raised by three quarters of a percentage point for a third consecutive occasion in September while the Federal Reserve (Fed) also lifted its forecasts to suggest that significant further increases are still likely up ahead, with the Fed Funds rate seen rising above 4.5% at some time next year.

The Pound rallied as the Dollar slipped from new highs ahead of the weekend and after a University of Michigan (UoM) survey suggested U.S. consumers' expectations of short and medium-term inflation ebbed in September, although that might not be the most important detail of the survey.

 

The U.S. Dollar rally of 2022 may be in its final throes and in part because there's a risk of either a Volckerian Federal Reserve (Fed) decision next Wednesday or of a market disappointment with the outcome, and each could be enough to see 2022’s Dollar rush turning into a great U.S. Dollar flush.