Pound-Canadian Dollar Rate Hangs by a Thread after Loonie's Jobs Blowout 

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• GBP/CAD spot rate at time of writing: 1.7384
• Bank transfer rate (indicative guide): 1.6777-1.6898
• FX specialist providers (indicative guide): 1.7124-1.7263
• More information on FX specialist rates here 

The Pound-to-Canadian Dollar rate tumbled on Friday and remained under pressure after Statistics Canada hit a February job marktet ball right out of the park, prompting a bid for the Loonie that exacerbated an already heavy sell-off in GBP/CAD, leaving it hanging by a thread ahead of the weekend.

Canada's economy confounded all expectations on Friday when Statistics Canada said it had created or recovered from the coronavirus some 259k new jobs last month, the highest amount since September last year and one which was much larger than the already-respectable 98.5k anticipated by consensus. 

"Both part-time (+171,000; +5.4%) and full-time (+88,000; +0.6%) work increased. Among those working part time (less than 30 hours per week) in February, almost one-quarter (23.8%) wanted a full-time job, up from less than one-fifth (18.5%) 12 months earlier," Statistics Canada says.

Job growth pushed the unemployment rate down from 9.4% to 8.2% and when economists had looked for a fall only as far as 9.2%. The data covers a month where restrictions on social contact were eased and supposedly non-essential businesses were allowed to reopen. 

"While the employment gains were tilted towards part-time work, that's where most of the losses were focused in the prior months. The rebound was also concentrated in the industries most affected by prior losses, particularly retail trade, accommodation and food services. Importantly, total hours worked continued to grow in February," says Royce Mendes, an economist at CIBC Capital Markets. "The quick turnaround is reminiscent of the first wave when employment rebounded far faster than expected."

Mendes says Canada's job market still has a long way to go before employments disrupted by the pandemic are either back online or replaced, but that enough progress has been made for the Bank of Canada (BoC) to cut back its quantitative easing programme in April.

That would mean less pressure on Canadian bond yields and may potentially add another feather to the cap of a now-outperforming Canadian Dollar.

Above: Pound-to-Canadian Dollar rate at 15-minute intervals with USD/CAD (black) and GBP/USD (yellow).

The BoC noted on Wednesday that data has been stronger and the economy more resilient to its latest shutdown, which means GDP may actually rise this quarter rather than fall as the bank anticipated. 

Effectively, the recovery likely continued and is widely expected to gather pace over the coming months as vaccine availability rises. Meanwhile, the BoC's guidance remains that its $4bn per week quantitative easing programme will continue only "until the recovery is well underway."

"The economic outlook for Canada has improved. This is fueling speculation that the BoC could reduce its bond purchases in the foreseeable future, which should support the CAD. We have changed our CAD forecast and no longer expect a significant depreciation against the USD in the short term," says You-na Park-Heger, an analyst at Commerzbank, who forecasts a 1.25-to-1.26 range for USD/CAD this year and a finish around 1.25. 

Canada's Dollar has been bolstered alongside rising oil prices and investors' reconsideration of wagers against the U.S. Dollar as increased government spending gives hope of a robust economic recovery, while also helping to lift U.S. bond yields back to pre-pandemic levels.

President Joe Biden's sign off on Washington's latest stimulus package on Thursday is balm for both U.S. and Canadian economies. Likewise with the 10.5% one-month gain for WTI crude oil, even if oil-related investment now plays a lesser role in the Canadian economy than it used to.

USD/CAD was steady following Friday's data in price action which, although not much to look at on its own, was notable because of the widespread and increasing gains seen by other U.S. exchange rates around the same time. 

U.S. Dollar gains saw GBP/USD's intraday loss deepen from -0.69% to -0.86% which, when combined with the steady and stable USD/CAD, conspired to push GBP/CAD lower. GBP/CAD was at risk of falling below the 1.74-to-1.76 range anticipated for this week, after appearing to lose technical support near 1.75. 

"The daily chart reflected a bearish outside range/key reversal day forming through the end of February, marking a high for the cross at 1.79," says Juan Manuel Herrera, a strategist at Scotiabank in a Tuesday note. "Support just below 1.75 emerged just ahead of the 38.2% retracement of the Dec/Mar rally." 

 Above: Pound-to-Canadian Dollar rate at daily intervals with USD/CAD (black).