AUD/USD Preferred Lower by Commerzbank Strategists

"While the 2014-2015 downtrend holds we remain overall still negative and we continue to target the September low at 0.6940." - Commerzbank.

The AUD/USD retains an upside bias heading into the final session of the week having breaking through the 0.7150 resistance zone to reach 0.7195.

At Thursday's open, the AUD/USD exchange rate was 0.7110 confirming this has been a profitable 24 hours for those who backed the Australian dollar higher.

The pair was helped in part by FOMC minutes, which remained hawkish but with no certainties, as well as the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) optimism on Australian growth in 2016. The once bearish outlook on the currency has been rolled back a bit.

RBA minutes from its November meeting clearly indicated a more optimistic, albeit cautiously so, economic outlook.

Following the minutes’ release, the banks’ assistant governor, Chris Kent, spoke about china’s slowdown, which is still a risk to the Australian economy, but he made sure to emphasise the overall story was not as grim.

Kent went on to say that demands for services and agricultural products in China are set to grow. Given the co-dependence of the Australian economy on China, the takeaway is that this growing demand will spill over to the local economy.

The assistant governor of the RBA is quoted as saying: “The shift in demand towards services and agricultural products within China and the Asian region more broadly presents new opportunities for Australian exporters.”

Commerzbank Recommended AUD/USD Trade: Chase Lower

Despite its current climb, the general sentiment is a resumption of losses over the month as the Fed finally delivers a rate increase in December.

On the Australian side, despite economic optimism, the RBA has left the door wide open for a rate cut because of ongoing economic challenges and a soft inflation outlook.

Additional underlying factors, such as the continued weak commodity prices and USD strength, are expected to keep a lid on the pair at around 0.7225.

Commerzbank notes, “AUD/USD has cleared its near term resistance line at 0.7114 and in doing so alleviates downside pressure and implies recovery to the 0.7229 2014-2015 downtrend.”

“Very near term the rally has reached the cloud resistance at .7175 and this may hold the initial test.

“Dips lower should find immediate support at 0.7135.”

Commerzbank concludes, “While the 2014-2015 downtrend holds we remain overall still negative and we continue to target the September low at 0.6940. Below it lies the 0.6905 recent low and also the 0.6774 2004 low.”

Meanwhile, analyst Anders Soderberg at S.E.B concedes his beairsh stance on the Australian dollar has proven wrong on ill timing.

"The Convincing move through earlier resistance at a descending trendline (0.7110) outs a near-term "Equality Point" and the early November high (0.7213/24) under pressure," says Soderberg. 

S.E.B believe the bear case on the Australian dollar stands though. However, a recovery towards 0.7250 / 0.73 is possible.