Markets Take Little Comfort from Signs U.S. Economy is Heading for Recession

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Following a weak readout for US manufacturing earlier in the week the US Services PMI index fell from 51.2 in March from 55.1 in February and well below consensus forecasts of 54.5.

There are further signs too of a weakening US labour market with private sector hiring rising by just 145,000 in March, down from 261,000 in February and below the estimate for 210,000.

While this may provide some support for the more doveish members of the Fed’s Open Market Committee, markets took little comfort from the reality that the world’s largest economy could be heading towards a recession.

Cyclical stocks are bearing the brunt of investor concerns.

The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite index posted its third consecutive loss losing just over 1% on the day.

The S&P 500 fared better down just 0.25% but within that basket consumer discretionary shares fell 2.0% and industrials slipped by 1.3%.

Perhaps it’s no surprise that oil prices have pulled back marginally after strong gains earlier in the week. Brent Crude is down 0.6% to $84.5 per barrel.

Overnight Asian markets were broadly lower following Wall Street’s lead.

A notable exception was India’s Nifty Fifty index which closed up 0.91%, following a surprise decision by the Reserve Bank of India to hold rates steady at 6.5% against expectations of a 0.25% cut.

Meanwhile, in London, the FTSE 100 has ticked up 0.27% this morning to 7,683.92.


Derren Nathan is head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown