MENU

Pound-Euro Exchange Rate Week Ahead Forecast: Back from Brink, but Overtaken by GBP/USD

Pound-Euro Exchange Rate Week Ahead Forecast: Back from Brink, but Overtaken by GBP/USD


The Pound-to-Euro exchange rate could be lifted by a dissipation of domestic political risks this week but gains may be slower to materialise than in the past, leading GBP/USD to outperform GBP/EUR during the weeks ahead in the absence of…


Cryptocurrency Live Prices in Pounds, Euros and Dollars

Currency Change 24h Price (GBP) Price (EUR) Price (USD)
Dogecoin DOGE -33.92%

Dogecoin price in Pounds

0.3434 View Data

Dogecoin price in Euros

0.395 View Data

Dogecoin price in Dollars

0.4804 View Data
Buy Now
Bitcoin BTC -2.92%

Bitcoin price in Pounds

41046.3996 View Data

Bitcoin price in Euros

47206.9 View Data

Bitcoin price in Dollars

57413.0318 View Data
Buy Now
Ethereum ETH +7.32%

Ethereum price in Pounds

2745.2028 View Data

Ethereum price in Euros

3157.22 View Data

Ethereum price in Dollars

3839.811 View Data
Buy Now
Tether USDT +0.28%

Tether price in Pounds

0.7196 View Data

Tether price in Euros

0.8276 View Data

Tether price in Dollars

1.0065 View Data
Buy Now
Ripple XRP -5.49%

Ripple price in Pounds

1.074 View Data

Ripple price in Euros

1.2352 View Data

Ripple price in Dollars

1.5023 View Data
Buy Now
Litecoin LTC +3.02%

Litecoin price in Pounds

252.155 View Data

Litecoin price in Euros

290 View Data

Litecoin price in Dollars

352.698 View Data
Buy Now
Cardano ADA +9.79%

Cardano price in Pounds

1.2631 View Data

Cardano price in Euros

1.4527 View Data

Cardano price in Dollars

1.7668 View Data
Buy Now
Polkadot DOT -1.66%

Polkadot price in Pounds

27.9022 View Data

Polkadot price in Euros

32.0899 View Data

Polkadot price in Dollars

39.0277 View Data
Buy Now
Enjin ENJ -4.49%

Enjin price in Pounds

1.7198 View Data

Enjin price in Euros

1.978 View Data

Enjin price in Dollars

2.4056 View Data
Buy Now
Bitcoin Cash BCH -5.01%

Bitcoin Cash price in Pounds

943.5379 View Data

Bitcoin Cash price in Euros

1085.15 View Data

Bitcoin Cash price in Dollars

1319.7594 View Data
Buy Now
Stellar XLM -5.67%

Stellar price in Pounds

0.4226 View Data

Stellar price in Euros

0.486 View Data

Stellar price in Dollars

0.5911 View Data
Buy Now
Chainlink LINK +1.77%

Chainlink price in Pounds

34.9278 View Data

Chainlink price in Euros

40.17 View Data

Chainlink price in Dollars

48.8548 View Data
Buy Now
Aave AAVE -0.6%

Aave price in Pounds

321.8859 View Data

Aave price in Euros

370.1965 View Data

Aave price in Dollars

450.233 View Data
Buy Now


Pound Sterling Data and Latest News


1 Day
1 Week
1 Month
This Year
Past Year
5 Years
10 Years

vs G10

vs Next 10

Loading

* 1 Week = past 5 trading days, 1 Month = past 20 trading days, This Year = 2021, Past Year = Past 365 Days

Click Here for More GBP Pairs

Click for EUR | USD | AUD | NZD | CAD | JPY | ZAR | SEK | NOK | CHF


Euro Data and Latest News


1 Day
1 Week
1 Month
This Year
Past Year
5 Years
10 Years

vs G10

vs Next 10

Loading

* 1 Week = past 5 trading days, 1 Month = past 20 trading days, This Year = 2021, Past Year = Past 365 Days

Click Here for More EUR Pairs

Click for EUR | USD | AUD | NZD | CAD | JPY | ZAR | SEK | NOK | CHF


U.S. Dollar Data and Latest News


1 Day
1 Week
1 Month
This Year
Past Year
5 Years
10 Years

vs G10

vs Next 10

Loading

* 1 Week = past 5 trading days, 1 Month = past 20 trading days, This Year = 2021, Past Year = Past 365 Days

Click Here for More USD Pairs

Click for GBP | EUR | AUD | NZD | CAD | JPY | ZAR | SEK | NOK | CHF


Effective Exchange Rates

GBPEUR Strength Forecast But Eurozone Inflation Data Prompts Euro Recovery

Manufacturing PMI boost for pound to euro

Above: A busy week of data releases for GBP got off to a good start with Manufacturing PMI beating predictions.

The outlook for the British pound to euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) is forecast to retain its well-established positive bias this March.

However, the month has gotten off to a soft start for the pound sterling despite the release of some strong UK economic data. Manufacturing PMI beat expectations - but to no avail for sterling bulls.

Nevertheless, the trend remains in favour of the UK unit:

“EURGBP has depreciated almost 3% over the past month, potentially reflecting increased safe-haven demand for GBP assets as euro area political uncertainty remains high and as euro area government bonds offer increasingly unattractive, and often negative, yields,” say Barclays in a weekly forecast note issued to clients.

At the time of writing we see the pound to euro exchange rate trading lower by a quarter of a percent. 1 GBP = 1.3815 EUR.

The euro to pound converts at 1 EUR = 0.7240.

NB: The above quotes and graphic representations are taken off the wholesale markets. Your bank will affix a spread at their discretion when passing on currency. However, an independent FX provider will seek to undercut your bank's offer, thereby delivering up to 5% more currency in some instances. Find out more.

Euro Exchange Rates Boosted by Deflation Data

The euro is currently staging a strong recovery rally against the pound, dollar and other majors. The downtrodden currency saw solid relief buying sparked by the release of better than expected inflation data.

Eurozone inflation rebounded in February with the annual cost of living standing at -0.3%, up from -0.6% in January, the EU statistics agency Eurostat said in preliminary data.

Markets had expected a reading of -0.5%; the positive surprise got the shared currency off to a strong start.

While this is not a game-changed for the European Central Bank currency markets will be particularly prone to positive data surprises in the Eurozone owing to the overwhelmingly negative stance taken against the shared currency.

Manufacturing PMI at 7 Month High

The pound sterling entered the new week, and month, on the defensive as both the dollar and euro found support.

However, the GBP is still expected to enjoy a positive tone in coming days, provided data does not disappoint.

“Further improvements in UK activity indicators this week should support continued GBP outperformance,” say Barclays at the start of what should be a busy week for the UK currency.

The seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS Purchasing Manager’s Index® (PMI® ) rose to a seven-month high of 54.1 in February, up from 53.1 in January.

Markets had expected a reading of 53.4 indicating this is a pro-GBP outcome.

The pound sterling found a fresh bid on the back of the day however a substantial rally has failed to materialise which tells us market focus rests elsewhere at the start of the new month.

Sterling Strength Hampering UK Export Growth

The release of Manufacturing PMI came with a warning attached:

“The appreciation of sterling is holding back the progress of UK exporters. It seems that, despite years of talk about a rebalancing of growth, we are still seeing only limited headway in moving away from consumer driven expansions and towards a greater contribution from exports,” says Rob Dobson, Senior Economist at survey compilers Markit.

The negative take on the strength in the British pound is contrasted to a more upbeat report issued in the previous month, this time from the CBI.

As we noted, the increased value of the UK currency is yet to significantly hit export strength.

The CBI reported a 7 month high in manufacturing activity noting that export orders picked up significantly, to a level not seen for six months.

No doubt, as the pound continues its advance against the euro the issue of currency strength will become increasingly relevant.

Watch out for an Improving Eurozone Economic Performance

Could the euro be about to surprise us with a period of strength?

With the market so heavily pitched against the euro any positive surprises will certainly make itself felt.

“The major surprise and talking point though may be the Eurozone where the weak euro is boosting exports and falling energy costs increasing consumer spending,” notes Carl Hasty at Smart Currency Business.

Longer-Term Risks to the Sterling Euro Rally: UK Elections

“While our view of further EURGBP depreciation remains driven by our expectations for UK economic outperformance relative to other European economies, the current highly uncertain 7 May election outcome increases the risks around our forecasts,” say Barclays.

Analysts believe that while markets appear to be well pricing election-day risks (perhaps too richly), they may be under-pricing the risks that uncertainty may persist well after the election, particularly in the case of a minority, unstable coalition government or even snap elections.

What to Watch This Week

Looking at the nearer-term picture, Barclays forecasted manufacturing PMI (Monday) to increase to 54.0 from 53.0 (consensus: 53.3) in February due to lower oil prices and February services PMI (Wednesday) to pick up to 58.0 from an already-high 57.2 (consensus: 57.5), consistent with upside surprises in flash services PMIs in France and Germany.

February UK construction PMI will also be released on Tuesday and the market is forecasting a mild moderation to 59.0 from 59.1 in January.

Analysts at the British bank do not expect any change in monetary policy at the BoE’s March meeting (Thursday), consistent with the recently released Inflation Report and MPC minutes.

A split vote on the Bank Rate could materialize again as we move into H2 15, but most likely not before.