Friday AM - GBP's Data Dump | USD Inflation | EUR Notable Selloff | CAD Eyes Employment Numbers

Currency exchange




It's a big day for data in the UK

At 09:30 the Office for National Statistics releases their monthly GDP numbers as well as quarterly GDP numbers. This offers the market the chance to assess whether the Bank of England was right to raise interest rates to 0.75% last week.

The month-on-month number markets are expecting is at 0.2%, down a notch on the previous month's 0.3%.

The quarterly number is forecast to read at 0.4% in the second quarter, up from 0.2% in the first quarter.

Annualised inflation is tipped to read at 1.3%.

We will also be looking at manufacturing and industrial production, out at the same time.

Markets are expecting industrial production for June to read at 0.4%, with manufacturing production to read at 0.3%.

Trade numbers out at the same time should show a trade deficit of £12.05 BN.

With market so heavily committed to pricing various Brexit outcomes we would expect any impact from today's data to be relatively short-lived.




For the Dollar, we will be focussed on inflation numbers today.

Month-on-month CPI inflation is released at 13:30 B.S.T. with markets looking for a 0.2% read for July, up from 0.1% in June.

Watch core CPI out at the same time though; this is arguably more indicative of the price trends that influence US Federal Reserve policy making.

Core for July is forecast to read at 0.2%, unchanged on the previous month.

Should the data beat, we would expect the ongoing uptrend in the Dollar complex to extend.

However, with markets taking US economic outperformance for granted, the bigger move could arguably be to the downside on any disappointment.

However, it's hard to argue for anything but buying more Dollars in the current market.

"The USD is demonstrating it is worthy of further appreciation in its own right, given its strong economy, a fresh lift in the U.S, terms of trade, and prospect of further Fed interest rate increases. The recent strength in the USD appears set to gather some momentum as these internal U.S. economic arguments lead to fresh “outright” buying of the USD," says Richard Grace, a strategist with Commonwealth Bank Australia.




Canada has an all-important employment report out at 13:30 B.S.T.

Watch for the headline employment change for July to read around 17.5K; any disappointment could lead to a market recalibration of Bank of Canada expectations which will likely in turn influence movement in the Loonie.

The unemployment rate is forecast to nudge lower to 5.9%, from 6.0%.




There is nothing specific to the Eurozone's release calendar today, but we are noting a significant underperformance by the single-currency.

"USD has extended its gains during today’s Asian trading session. EUR/USD has broken below the recent 21 June low of 1.1509 to 1.1446 at the time of writing after the FT reported that the ECB was concerned about the Turkish exposure of some European banks. It looks like EUR/USD will hit our end‑September forecast of 1.1400 early," says Grace.

It is down over half a percent against the Dollar, and even Sterling is taking a good slice of recent losses back.

"GBP stabilised somewhat yesterday and EUR/GBP fell back to just below the 0.90 level. The move lower in EUR/GBP was mainly driven by the downward pressure on EUR/USD though, and we still think it is too early to call for a stabilisation in GBP risk premium," says Jens Peter Sørensen, Chief Analyst with Danske Bank.

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