Pound to Euro: Forecast, News and Data in the Coming Week
The Pound to Euro has surged higher following rhetoric from the Bank of England (BOE) which suggests officials are much closer to raising interest rates than previously thought. 
The move higher will probably continue and broadly we forecast the  exchange rate to rise in the week ahead. 
There are, however, several levels situated just above the market level which will be tough obstacles to overcome. 
These include the R2 monthly pivot at 1.1404 (current market level 1.1381) and the 200-week moving average (MA) at 1.1484. 
These levels will be difficult to break above, particularly the moving average. 
Monthly pivots are not as dififcult to break above; they are levels where traders often fade the trend and so prices often pull-back, stall or even reverse at them, however, this market is so strong the level could be ignored. 
We would ideally wish to see a break clearly above the R2, confirmed by a move above 1.1430, before expecting a continuation higher to the next target at 1.1480. 
If the pair breaks clearly above the 200-week (and 200-day not far above), confirmed by a move above 1.1550, then it ould porbably reach the next target at 1.1700. 
So strong is the uptrend, however, that our view is that in the week ahead the pair will pobably go higher, or if not then will enter a bullish sideways market as traders consolidate their positions ready for the next move higher. 
The MACD momentum indicator is favouring the new uptrend with its own equally sharp rise in bullish momentum, and now that it has crossed the zero-line has officially classified the trend as 'up'. 
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Data, News and Events for the Pound 
In the UK, retail sales, out on Wednesday, September 20 at 09.30 BST, will provide fresh insights on consumption trends.  
It is forecast to rise 1.1% year-on-year in August (from 1.3% previously) and Core is expected to rise 1.3% from 1.5% a year ago. 
The recent rise in the number of people in work, "should provide some support to consumer spending, with the jobless rate falling to its lowest since 1975," said IHS Markit's Principle Economist Bernard Aw. 
"However, wage growth remains stubbornly low despite the hiring surge, which could continue to weigh on household spending," he added. 
IHS Markit's Household Finance Index, a survey of house holders finances, out in the week ahead, could also be useful in measuring the pressure on consumers. 
Finally, BOE's Mark Carney will be speaking at 16.00 on Monday, September 16, and his comments will be closely followed for any further clarification of BE policy trajectory, although he is unlikly to deliver a radically different message from that which came out at Thursday's meeting. 
Data, News and Events for the Euro