EUR/USD Starting to Find Some Direction

Euro dollar finding direction again

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The EUR/USD exchange rate has risen for two days in succession now and is at 1.1845 on Wednesday. Analyst Richard Perry of Hantec Markets says the charts are yet to give final confirmation that a more protracted uptrend is restarting.

After a few weeks of aimless fluctuation, the pair is starting to find some direction as the dollar comes under growing selling pressure.

EUR/USD has moved higher though initial resistance at 1.1830 which opens the resistance levels towards the highs of the three month consolidation range.

There is an improvement in momentum, however, this needs to be confirmed with daily RSI holding into the 60s and MACD lines rising above zero.

EURUSD chart

This would then point towards the pair holding around the upper half of the 1.1610/1.2010 medium term range.

Above 1.1870 the more important resistance at 1.1900/1.1915 is open. The hourly chart shows 1.1815 initial support this morning, and then 1.1760/1.1795.

If this breakout above 1.1830 holds on a closing basis, then we would look to buy into intraday weakness.

EURUSD forecasts

After so many weeks of “will they, won’t they?”, markets have taken one word “optimistic” from Democrat House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and run with it. We are risk-on once more.

US Treasury yields are breaking higher, with the 10 year yield above 0.80% for the first time since June, whilst this is also accompanied by a “bear steepener” on the yield curve (which is bullish for risk). We have been here before though, and this move is clearly open to potential disappointment.

Markets are taking fiscal stimulus as not “if”, but “when” and as just a matter of time now.

The US dollar is coming under growing negative pressure, with the Dollar Index falling below 93.0 for the first time in a month.

A move below 92.70 would now open a retest of the 91.75 September low (which would equate to EUR/USD testing 1.2010 once more).

Equity markets have been fluctuating in recent sessions, with repeated bull failure moves, however, once more we see futures ticking higher. Can the move hold this time?

Away from the US, we had UK inflation rebounding all but in line with expectations today, with the core at +1.3% year on year and headline at +0.5%.

A tenth of a percent miss on the consensus headline has not been enough to weigh sterling down today.