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Pound Sterling Week Ahead Forecast: June 21 Decision + Economic Data to Take Centre Stage, But Big Moves Against Euro and Dollar Unlikely

Pound Sterling Week Ahead Forecast: June 21 Decision + Economic Data to Take Centre Stage, But Big Moves Against Euro and Dollar Unlikely


The focus for the British Pound in the coming week includes a Monday call by the UK government on whether or not to fully relax Covid restrictions on June 21 followed by a slew of economic data releases due on…


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Pound Sterling Data and Latest News


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U.S. Dollar Data and Latest News


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Effective Exchange Rates

GBP/USD: A Market in the Balance

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The GBP/USD exchange rate has retreated from this week's high at 1.29227 to trade at 1.2820 on Wednesday. Analyst and technical forecaster Richard Perry of Hantec Markets says the outlook for the pair remains highly uncertain.

The outlook for GBP/USD has become rather uncertain in the past couple of weeks.

Breaking down below 1.3000 lost the bulls their control.

However, the support subsequently formed at 1.2670 suggested that there was no decisive drive to turn GBP/USD bearish yet though.

As the market has fluctuated between 1.2670/1.3000 we see a neutralised outlook.

GBPUSD Sept 30

Failure to hold back above 1.2860 in the last two sessions leaves the market in balance. Improving momentum signals are just beginning to tail off again as Cable has ticked lower today.

The hourly chart shows initial support at 1.2820 and a move back under opens 1.2775 initially, but would then develop into 1.2670 again.

With so much politics to swing both sterling and the dollar in the coming weeks, no wonder the outlook for GBP/USD is looking so uncertain. Initial resistance at 1.2900/1.2925.

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The positive sentiment that was starting to build through major markets has taken a hit again in the wake of the first Presidential debate.

President Trump was never going to go easy on his opponent Joe Biden, but the way that the debate panned out points towards a significant increase in political risk in the weeks and potentially months ahead.

An acrimonious exchange between the candidates ensued, where it is clear that the incumbent, President Trump, could look to win at all costs, even if that means challenging to result in the Supreme Court.

Early suggestions are that the uncertainty over a potential winner in the election could rumble on well beyond 3rd November (where a winner would be declared).

Political risk means market sentiment falters.

Treasury yields are falling this morning, whilst the US dollar in its role as a safe haven is outperforming. Equities are under pressure, with the risk positive mood across forex majors having turned sour again.

The Japanese yen seems to also be a winner if this trend continues. Early this morning, the final reading to UK GDP for Q2 showed a slight positive revision to -19.8% (from -20.4%), whilst the UK Current Account for Q2 came in a -£2.8bn which was a marked improvement on the -£21.1bn of Q1 but slightly worse than the expected -£0.4bn. Traders will be watching out for ECB President Lagarde this morning and the ADP jobs number later.

here are several US data points on the economic calendar today.

The ADP Employment change is at 1315BST and is expected to show an increase to +650,000 jobs in September (up from +428,000 in August).

The US final Q2 GDP is at 1330BST and is not expected to show any revision from the -31.7% annualised prelim reading (aft er fall of -5.0% in Q1).

US Pending Home Sales are at 1500BST and are expected to show monthly growth of +3.4% in August (after +5.9% growth in July). The EIA crude oil inventories are at 1530BST and are expected to show a build of +1.4m barrels (after a drawdown of -1.6m barrels last week).

There one notable central bank governor and a couple of Fed speakers to watch out for today.

ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks early at 0820BST, where her comments on faltering inflation will be watched for. Later in the day, the FOMC’s Neel Kashkari (voter, dovish) speaks at 1600BST, whilst the FOMC’s Michelle Bowman (voter, leans hawkish) speaks 1840BST.