EUR/USD Forecast: "Under Mounting Pressure"

Image © European Central Bank

The EUR/USD exchange rate is quoted at 1.1699 in mid-week trade and further losses are possible as technical signals suggest the market has topped out, according to analyst and technical forecaster Richard Perry of Hantec Markets.

The euro is under mounting pressure now.

Two decisive negative candles in the early part of this week have completely changed the outlook.

A strong bear candle that closed below the support at 1.1750 has now been followed by an early move this morning to breach 1.1695. This is the market now looking to confirm a topping out.

EURUSD Sept 23

A close below 1.1695 would be the confirmation of a downside break of a two month trading range (effectively a top pattern) that implies around -300 pips of further downside in the coming weeks.

An unwind towards the old resistance levels 1.1420/1.1490 would then be a viable target.

Momentum is increasingly corrective with RSI into the mid-30s whilst also having downside potential.

Increasingly the outlook is becoming one where intraday rallies are a chance to sell now, and any bull failure between 1.1695/1.1750 would add weight to this strategy.

Below 1.1695 the first real support is not until 1.1490.

EURUSD forecasts

A recovery on the US dollar is gathering momentum.

With traders increasingly concerned about second wave COVID infection rates rising across Europe and trends also turning higher for the US, there is a shift into the dollar.

Throughout the summer months the perception was that the US was in for economic underperformance.

However, this perception is now being re-set as France, Spain and increasingly the UK are struggling with rising infection rates which are forcing the reinstatement of social containment measures.

Congress may have been able to pass a stopgap funding bill to keep government open, but a fiscal support package remains some way off.

Fed chair Powell may have towed the dovish line, but there has also been surprisingly hawkish comments from the FOMC’s Charles Evans over limiting QE and raising rates sooner than expected.

The dollar has seen the benefit of all this, driving higher through 94.00 resistance on Dollar Index.

This equates to two month lows on EUR/USD whilst gold has also broken decisively below $1900. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintained a fairly steady ship on monetary policy (rates at +0.25%, asset purchases steady at NZD 100bn) and kept the door open to negative rates.

This has not helped the Kiwi too much though this morning.

Key Market Events to Watch

The economic calendar is awash with flash PMIs for September today. Eurozone data is at 0900BST and is expected to show Eurozone flash Manufacturing PMI improving to 51.9 (from 51.7 final August) and Eurozone flash Services PMI to remain at 50.5 (50.5 final August).

This would see the Eurozone flash Composite PMI slipping slightly to 51.7 (from a final 51.9 in August). The UK flash Manufacturing PMI is at 0930BST and is expected to drop back to 54.1 (from 55.2 final August) whilst UK flash Services PMI is expected to fall to 56.0 (from 58.8 final August).

This would leave the UK flash Composite PMI at 56.3 (down from 59.1 in August).

The US flash Manufacturing PMI is at 1445BST and is expected to remain at 53.1 (53.1 final August) with the US flash Services PMI to slip slightly to 54.7 (from a final 55.0 in August).

Aside from that, the EIA Crude Oil Inventories are at 1530BST and are expected to show an inventory drawdown of -2.3m barrels (after a drawdown of -4.4m barrels last week).

Once more there will be focus on Fed chair Jerome Powell who testifies before the House Select Committee at 1530BST about impact of COVID-19.

Again, any clarity on Fed monetary policy could drive volatility. There are two other Fed speakers today too, with Loretta Mester (tends to lean hawkish) at 1400BST and Randall Quarles (centrist) at 1900BST.