Exchange Rate Forecasts for 14/01: British Pound, Euro, US Dollar, Yen and Australian dollar

By Rob Samson

Pound Sterling Live present our latest set of near-term exchange rate forecasts garnered from a couple of the big names we follow.

US dollar exchange rates remained under pressure as the hangover from disappointing US labour market numbers from Friday extended its grip over the foreign exchange markets.

The USD ended mixed against the majors on Monday as position adjustments ensued.

"USD-JPY continued to dip and tested briefly below the 103.00 handle with the Fed’s Lockhart injecting another dose of dovish rhetoric. Elsewhere, the antipodeans also fared better with the AUD-USD back above 0.9050 by late NY," says Emmanuel Ng at OCBC Bank.

Meanwhile, the JPY also outperformed across the board in tandem with the sinking USD-JPY while the GBP continued to slough off recent optimism with the GBP-USD buckling below 1.6400.

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Todays exchange rate forecasts

Pound Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast

"Markets may continue to exhibit little tolerance for further downside data surprises (December price data due today) out of the UK with unease over the Scottish referendum in September cited as another source of unsteadiness in the pair. If the foothold at 1.6400 is lost, expect a further drift lower towards 1.6300 and then the 55-day MA (1.6278)." - Emmanuel Ng at OCBC Bank.

"Fresh selling materialised and downside should be limited as bullish conditions are in place. Support should hold at 1.6317. Resistance is at 1.6517 ahead of 1.6622." - Geoffrey Yu at UBS.

Euro pound sterling exchange rate forecast

"The latest sharp recovery indicates scope for extension to test resistance at 0.8377, a break above which would open 0.8424. Support is at 0.8290 ahead of 0.8231." - UBS.

Euro dollar forecast

"EUR-USD may remain featureless pending the EZ CPI and industrial production releases later today with the 55-day MA (1.3613) serving as the next key support if 1.3650 is perforated. We stay on a sell-rally stance in the interim." - OCBC Bank.

"Any further recovery will be limited as bearish trending conditions are in place. Resistance should hold at 1.3762. Support is at 1.3524, a close below which would trigger a deeper sell-off." - UBS.

Dollar Yen forecast

"The latest November current account deficit print may embolden some JPY bears but given the outstanding stretched positioning and potential for further unwinding of global risk appetite levels, we continue to expect potential for further downside probes. If 103.00 is breached, look for the next support at the 55-day MA (102.22)." - OCBC.

"As long as support holds at 103.09, there’s scope for extension of the broader bullish trend to break through critical resistance at 105.75 and extend to test 110.74." - UBS.

Australian dollar vs US dollar outlook

"The pair may find support on dips in the near term given the slightly damaged greenback. We look for the pair to bounce around in a range with support seen at 0.8970 while resistance is expected towards the 55-day MA (0.9121)." - OCBC Bank.

"The recent recovery does not change the broader bearish picture. Resistance should hold at 0.9179. Support is at 0.8821, a break below which would expose 0.8545." - UBS.

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