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- EUR/USD spot at publication: 1.2127
- Bank transfer rates (indicative guide): 1.1706-1.1791
- Specialist FX transfer provider rates (indicative): 1.2046
- More information on specialist provider rates, here
Foreign exchange strategists at TD Securities are looking to sell the Euro and buy the Dollar in their trade of the week, based on a view that the currency market is at a cross roads.
In a briefing to clients out on January 25, Mazen Issa, Senior FX Strategist at TD Securities says, "we think currency markets are at a crossroads with a well-established but well advanced theme of USD shorts."
The view is a tactical short-term one, and therefore does not necessarily reflect the broader view on how the Euro-to-Dollar exchange rate will trade over coming months.
Investor sentiment and movements in U.S. bond markets are key to the trade.
The Dollar is typically held to be a beneficiary of when global stock markets turn lower, with investors making a demand on dollars when they sell stocks. The view at TD Securities is that this dynamic could work in favour of U.S. Dollar appreciation in the near-term.
"Risk sentiment could struggle to find near-term highs just as the global growth backdrop shifts lower, leaving us inclined to hold a sell on rallies posture for the EUR. With this in mind, we implement a short EURUSD position as our Trade of the Week," says Issa.
TD Securities join a host one other investment banks / investors in addressing the issue of whether equity markets are now too expensive relative to fundamentals. Indeed, Pound Sterling Live's editorial desk is awash with analyst considerations of whether a bubble is forming and whether a near-term retreat in equity markets is now in order.
EUR/USD Forecasts 2021
Period: Full Year 2021
FX for Businesses Guide
But it is not just valuations that will mean the 'risk on' flavour that tends to support the Euro's advance will remain in short supply over coming days.
The Federal Reserve meet on Wednesday to discuss the economy and monetary policy, and TD Securities are looking for a pick up in the yield paid on U.S. debt to result. The rise in yields would be a reflection of a growing market assumption that the Fed will withdraw stimulus at a date that is sooner than had been assumed at the start of the year. The closer the assumed date gets, the higher yields travel.
"While the Fed meeting this week is unlikely to compel an instant shift in currency market perceptions, we think a backup in rates is inevitable. Given the push higher in yields has been driven by breakevens, we think there is room for the market to price in taper in real rates," says Issa.
A rule-of-thumb in the current market is that rising U.S. bond yields are a negative for equity markets and are supportive for the Dollar.
TD Securities are targeting a test of the 1.2050 January low.