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Despite raising interest rates again, Sweden will still have the lowest real policy rate in the G10 space according to one analyst, which can explain why the currency can weaken further.
The Swedish Krona sustained fresh losses following the Riksbank's latest effort to strengthen the currency with a more hawkish calibration of its monetary policy, leaving a bullish market to lift GBP/SEK from its June lows, though other factors more particular to Sterling could yet marr the outlook for the latter.
Pound Sterling fell widely in the midweek trading session but its heaviest losses came in relation to the Krona after a new record for one measure of inflation appeared to stoke concerns about what might become of the UK economy as the Bank of England (BoE) effort to return inflation to the target continues from Thursday.
The Krona was weaker after Riksbank, Sweden's central bank, hiked its policy rate by 50bp to 3.50% but gave 'dovish' guidance that implied it was close to ending its rate hiking cycle.
The Swedish Krona rose against a falling Euro and a handful of other major counterparts in a resilient midweek performance after local inflation rose further for the month of February, placing the Sveriges Riksbank under a spotlight ahead of its April interest rate decision.
The Swedish Krona fell across the board after the Riksbank raised its policy rate by a bigger than expected margin but slashed its growth projections for 2023.
The Swedish Krona is the second worst performing major currency of the year and local analysts are worried about the outlook ahead of September's Sveriges Riskbank interest rate decision, which is set to be announced next week and ahead of a series of other central bank policy pronouncements.
The Swedish Krona has fallen to within striking distance of its coronavirus crisis lows so far in the year and could be at risk of further losses in the week ahead unless the Riksbank is able to convince a hawkish market of its plan for containing rising rates of inflation in Sweden’s economy.
The Swedish Krona outperformed all other major currencies in the penultimate session of the week, pushing the GBP/SEK exchange rate back toward its late March lows and in the process jeopardising Sterling's 2021 uptrend after the Riksbank sought to confront a growing inflation problem.
The Krona topped the major currency rankings in the penultimate session of the week after the Riksbank signalled that it could be about to shift to a ‘hawkish’ interest rate stance that some analysts say would act as a catalyst for a turnaround by the beleaguered Swedish currency.
The Krona was walking wounded on Thursday after the Riksbank expanded its quantitative easing programme, although local as well as international analysts still see the Swedish currency as likely to achieve new highs against the Euro and other rivals in the months ahead.
The Swedish Krona weakened over a percent on Thursday after the Riksbank decided to hold the refinancing rate that it offers to banks unchanged at –0.25%, with a view to keeping the rates 'lower for longer', in line with sluggishly low growth and inflation.
Swedish Krona rises against Sterling after surprise increase in Q2 growth, SEK extremely undervalued but if growth returns Riksbank could start raising rates. Wildfire damage is a potential spoiler.
The Swedish krona has been the second worst performing major currency (behind the pound) in 2016 as the Swedish Riksbank has pressed an iron gauntlet firmly down on interest rates via one of the most uncompromising negative interest rate policies in the world, however, this is distorting the kronor’s ‘true’ value.