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Pound Sterling: Bailey in Clearest Rate Hike Warning Yet

Pound Sterling: Bailey in Clearest Rate Hike Warning Yet


The British Pound is close to the previous week's highs against the Euro and Dollar with markets on Monday digesting perhaps the strongest hint yet that the Bank of England is intent on raising interest rates soon.


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GBP/USD Forecast: "A Move Above 1.3025 Would be a Sign of Positive Intent"

Dollar and the Pound

Image © Adobe Images

The GBP/USD exchange rate has rallied back to 1.30 in mid-week trade amongst fresh Brexit trade negotiation headlines that are supportive of a view a deal can be done.

However, analyst and technical forecaster Richard Perry of Hantec Markets says the pair is likely to maintain a neutral outlook until 1.3025 is broken:

The dollar is growing under pressure across major forex. For GBP/USD, this move has so far been less decisive, as there is the added uncertainty of sterling and the reaction to the Brexit trade deal negotiations.

GBP/USD

However, there is a move which is building pressure back towards 1.3000 once more.

The resistance of the past six weeks has consistently been around 1.3000/1.3080 and it will be interesting to see whether the bulls take a view and are able to pull GBP/USD up through this barrier.

Momentum indicators are ticking higher in improvement, but have more to confirm a bullish breakout is on the way.

For now, we still sit with an uncertain neutral outlook, however, there is a positive bias to GBP/USD which is developing once more. The support at 1.2845 is strengthening and initially support is at 1.2910 this morning (from yesterday’s low).

A move above 1.3025 would be a sign of positive intent.

GBPUSD download banner

After so many weeks of “will they, won’t they?”, markets have taken one word “optimistic” from Democrat House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and run with it. We are risk-on once more.

US Treasury yields are breaking higher, with the 10 year yield above 0.80% for the first time since June, whilst this is also accompanied by a “bear steepener” on the yield curve (which is bullish for risk). We have been here before though, and this move is clearly open to potential disappointment.

Markets are taking fiscal stimulus as not “if”, but “when” and as just a matter of time now.

The US dollar is coming under growing negative pressure, with the Dollar Index falling below 93.0 for the first time in a month.

A move below 92.70 would now open a retest of the 91.75 September low (which would equate to EUR/USD testing 1.2010 once more).

Equity markets have been fluctuating in recent sessions, with repeated bull failure moves, however, once more we see futures ticking higher. Can the move hold this time?

Away from the US, we had UK inflation rebounding all but in line with expectations today, with the core at +1.3% year on year and headline at +0.5%.

A tenth of a percent miss on the consensus headline has not been enough to weigh sterling down today.