- Last Updated: 24 April 2014
GBP LIVE: Sterling Exchange Rate Outlook, News and Views on Thursday
The British pound (GBP) is playing catch-up on Thursday having put in a soft performance on Thursday. We explore the key technical levels for the GBP exchange rate complex as there is no key data on tap today.
Pound Sterling (GBP) Outlook Today: Pound Euro Exchange Rate Fails to Advance, Risk of Short Covering Looms
The British pound (GBP) is trading lower against the euro and US dollar today with warnings that further gains may be hard to come by owing to extensive long positioning.
The pound sterling (GBP) is forecasted to maintain a bullish tone against its major currency counterparts in the week ahead.
The pound sterling (GBP) has benefited from a new-found impetus in the latter part of the week past. However, analysts warn further gains will be harder to come by.
The pound sterling (GBP) has benefited from a new-found impetus over the course of the past 24 hours. However, analysts warn further gains will be harder to come by.
The pound sterling (GBP) has powered higher as UK unemployment smashes through the Bank of England's 7% target.
"But with US CPI likely to rise and GBP positioning already a bit stretched, GBP/USD may prove a little vulnerable today."
Live Pound Sterling Rates:
- British Pound / Euro exchange rate:1.2152
- British Pound / US dollar: 1.6809
- British Pound / Australian dollar: 1.8134
- British Pound / Canadian dollar rate: 1.853
- British Pound / New Zealand dollar rate: 1.9623
- British Pound / South African Rand rate: 17.8566
Daily Forecasts from FuturesTechs
Every day Pound Sterling Live presents a trade idea courtesy of the team at FuturesTechs, the idea includes an entry, exit and contextual relevance for the currency trader. Visit the Daily Forecast Section Here.
Previously, on the EUR-USD:
"Looks pretty bullish going into this new week and I’d be looking to buy dips unless we drop back through 1.3796. >> Read More
On the GBP-USD:
"We would expect to still see the market struggle ahead of the 1.6822 February high." >> Read more
Whereas it appears that the UK double dip recession was a statistical mishap - data revision will probably eliminate the downturn in 2011/2012 - the European Union likely suffered an actual return to recession in beginning in Q4 2012. A 0.1% decline in real GDP in Q1 2013 means that, six years on, output is still lower than at the beginning of 2007.
The situation is the same for the Eurozone where output also languished below the Q1 2007 level in the first three months of this year. More worryingly, a sixth consecutive quarter of negative growth means that this downturn has now lasted longer than the financial crisis. Given the dire economic outlook for several peripheral countries there is little prospect of improvement in 2013.
A big factor in the disappointing if predictable result is that the French economy again contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2013. We expect that this situation will persists for a while and given the weight of France in Europe the rest of the currency union will be affected. The other major Eurozone economy, Germany, is estimated to have grown in Q1 2013, but at only 0.1% quarter on quarter. It, too, borders on the brink of a downturn. Finland, another nation considered part of the economically solid Eurozone core, also entered recession with a second consecutive quarter of negative growth.
A rare piece of good news in the latest Eurostat release came from Portugal, where the pace of output declines slowed from -1.8% in Q4 2012 to -0.3% in Q1 2013. Also, Austria narrowly avoided recession with stable GDP in Q1 after a fall at the end of 2012.
In terms of monetary policy, the latest GDP figures are unlikely to shift the stance of the European Central Bank significantly following its cut in the interest rate from 0.75% to 0.5%. A further reduction in interest rates is possible but unlikely at present. The purchase of government bonds in a quantitative easing-type policy will probably be reserved for a crisis situation in which the bond markets turn against a country such as Italy or Spain that is of systemic importance.
In sum, the Eurozone continues to struggle as the public and private sectors deleverage and structural reform continues slowly. For next year we expect the Eurozone's GDP to remain roughly stable and further ahead slow growth still looms while internal devaluation hampers the economy in the periphery.
Pound to Euro Forecast: Are You Hoping for Higher GBP-EUR Rates? 1.19 is 2014 Average sayUniCredit
In their latest update to their 2014 - 2015 pound euro exchange rate forecasts UniCredit Bank warn the pair will be stuck around the 1.19 level
Why Scotland should peg an 'independent' currency to the British pound sterling
The positive arguments for the retention of the British pound sterling (GBP) by an independent Scotland outweigh the arguments for the establishment of an independent free-floating currency argue Deutsche Bank. Read More.
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